Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,


Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2010 Sep 16 2201 UTC



Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2010



IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1108 (S29E69) was numbered today and produced multiple B-class events.

Currently the region is classified as an Cko-type group with an area of 290 millionths although the region is still rotating around the southeast limb.



IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, as C-class events are likely for the next three days (17-19 September). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1108.



IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods observed at some high-latitude locations.



IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an isolated active period on day one (17 September). Days two and three (18-19 September) are expected to be quiet.



III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green



IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Sep 083

Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 085/086/086

90 Day Mean 16 Sep 079



V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 006/008-005/005-005/005



VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01